A company goes public. The stock jumps on its first day. Headlines celebrate a successful IPO.
But what happens next — and ultimately?
Does an IPO that performs well on Day 1 actually make money for investors one year later?
I wanted to answer that question with data rather than anecdotes.
So I built a database of 158 companies that went public in the US and Japan in 2024 — 72 in the US and 86 in Japan — and followed them for approximately one year.
For each company, I tracked the offer price, first traded price, first-day close and Day-360 price. Stock splits, reverse splits, ticker changes, acquisitions and delistings were checked manually and individually.
What emerged was not one simple answer, but several striking differences between the two markets — particularly when I looked at who bought at what price, and how large the IPO was.
One finding was especially hard to ignore.
Continue reading to see what happened to US and Japanese IPO investors one year after listing.