In Parts 1–3, we traced how Thailand’s baht, policy rates, and bond yields all reinforced a safe-haven image. But financial stability came with a price: erosion of competitiveness.
This cost is captured in Thailand’s terms of trade (TOT) — the ratio of export prices to import prices.
The Long Drift
Early 2000s: TOT benefited from cheap imports and steady export growth.
2010s: Relative prices began to erode as productivity lagged and regional peers climbed the value chain.
2020s: Despite a strong baht, TOT shows little improvement, underscoring Thailand’s structural stagnation.
While investors see a financial haven, exporters feel squeezed — losing margins and market share. Below is the historical TOT index over the previous decades.
🔒 Free for Subscribers : The Data That Reveals the Cost
Subscribers can unlock our long-term chart of Thailand’s Terms of Trade (2000–2025), highlighting the divergence between financial inflows and real-sector competitiveness.