Japan and Thailand have long shared striking similarities. Neither experienced Western colonisation, and today both face a daunting demographic shift — shrinking birth rates and aging populations.
Japan’s “lost decades” since the 1990s are a warning signal. Without consistent leadership and disciplined economic policy, Thailand risks following a similar low-growth path. With limited fiscal resources, prioritisation matters: channeling capital toward high-productivity sectors that can drive inclusive growth.
■Current reality in Thailand
Demographics: Fertility rate is near Japan-like lows (~1.0–1.2), accelerating aging.
Growth outlook: IMF estimates Thailand’s potential growth falling toward 2%, the lowest in ASEAN.
Fiscal strain: Pandemic-era stimulus leaves less room for bold spending. Choices matter.
Foreign investment: Japan has remained Thailand’s largest investor for 20+ years, yet Chinese capital is rising fast, especially in EVs and batteries.
■Key takeaway. Thailand can avoid a Japan-style stagnation, but only with political stability, structural reforms, and a clear value proposition for investors. Japan–Thailand economic cooperation remains vital, but must adapt to new realities where China’s presence looms large.
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