Why Thailand’s equity puzzle hasn’t changed
Last year, in an Asia Times commentary, I argued that Thailand’s persistent equity discount was not the result of politics or cyclical weakness, but a structural problem of confidence.
The issue was never whether dividends were being paid. It was how capital was generated, preserved, and redeployed — and whether investors could trust that process.
A January 17 article in the Bangkok Post brings that argument back into focus:
Thai dividend payouts hit record high in 2025
Thai listed companies distributed a record THB 651 billion in dividends last year, even as the equity market declined for a third consecutive year. Financials, energy and utilities led payouts. Dividend-focused funds delivered returns of 7–8%, outperforming the SET index.
On the surface, this sounds reassuring.
In reality, it underscores the very contradiction highlighted in last year’s analysis — one that continues to weigh on Thai equities today.
High dividends, low confidence
Thailand’s equity market has not been starved of shareholder payouts.
It has been starved of confidence.
Record dividends were never the missing ingredient. And as current market pricing shows, they have not been sufficient to restore trust.
Despite unprecedented cash distributions: