In Part 2, we saw how Thailand’s policy rate lost traction: cutting didn’t weaken the baht, hiking only attracted more inflows.
Now we turn to the market’s view — bond yields.
For two decades, the 10-year Thai government bond yield has moved steadily downward, detached from growth or inflation fundamentals. Yields became the market’s true compass, signaling stability and reinforcing the baht’s safe-haven status.
The Yield Story (2005–2025)
2005–2008: Yields fluctuated near 5–6% before the Global Financial Crisis.
2009–2012: Post-GFC compression toward 3%, even as policy rates rebounded.
2013–2019: Despite political upheaval, yields drifted lower into the 2.5–3.0% range.
2020 (Covid shock): Collapsed to record lows near 1%.
2021–22: Temporary rebound above 3% during global inflation scare.
2023–25: Renewed slide below 3%, even as domestic growth remains weak.
🔒 Subscriber Access: The Charts That Prove the Paradox
Subscribers can unlock our long-term chart of 10yr Thai Government Bond Yields (2005–2025) — the structural downtrend that redefined Thailand as a financial haven.